Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
